DF:理论上 索尼2018年能否推出PS5？

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Could Sony be releasing its next-gen PlayStation in 2018? That's the notion put forward by Maquarie Capital Securities analyst Damian Thong, cited in a recent edition of The Wall Street Journal. But is the time right to replace PlayStation 4? And what kind of hardware could Sony conceivably deliver next year?

First up, it's worth pointing out that Thong is credited with predicting PS4 Slim and PS4 Pro, making him a creditable source. However, a comprehensive look through Google's news archive doesn't appear to show any prediction for the Pro that predates Kotaku's initial PlayStation 4.5 exclusive.
We can add some additional flavour to the speculation as we spoke to PlayStation system architect Mark Cerny last year, where he was very specific about how PS4 Pro was not a next-gen console, sharing with us the criteria he has for what constitutes a new console generation. Games hardware is years in the making - work on PS4 began in 2008 - so we can safely assume that his words do have some bearing on what to expect from the next PlayStation, which is almost certainly in the works now, even if a 2018 launch does seem unlikely.

"Each new generation brings with it a new set of capabilities: CPUs, GPUs and the like but also controllers and new types of display devices. If you go back to the 1970s, it was colour TV. That was the new display device," Cerny told us. "These capabilities unlock new potential for the type of games that can be created. For example, increased CPU power might not seem like a game-changer but it actually allows for much better enemy AI, more enemy characters, better world simulation and a whole host of other evolutions in the game experience."
Looking back over our conversation, Cerny laid out what he considered necessary for a new console generation. He discussed a move to a new CPU architecture (retaining x86 CPU architecture as a possibility, albeit one that still poses compatibility issues with existing PS4 games), increased graphics capability, significantly more memory, the IO required to feed it, along with the sheer mass storage required to house these advanced new titles.

But to cut to the chase - by the criteria he laid down, is a new PlayStation in 2018 technically feasible? In theory, yes. But would the resulting console deliver the generational leap he describes above? That's less clear. Elsewhere, Cerny has discussed the notion of an eight teraflop console required for native 4K gaming, and that's an interesting figure to put out there, because such a machine could conceivably be built for a late 2018 launch. But the question remains as to whether this is enough to kickstart a new console generation. Higher resolution versions of existing games doesn't really constitute the "breakthrough experiences" Cerny associates with next-gen hardware.

But let's look at the evidence for a viable console on a per-component basis. First up, the CPU architecture issue can be addressed easily enough - AMD has its new Ryzen processor line out now and a version of this architecture will be repurposed for its all-in-one APUs, meaning that the core technology (a version of Ryzen integrated with Radeon graphics technology in a single chip) almost certainly exists in the here and now.
The next point concerns the configuration of the GPU, which ties in very closely with the process technology that would be used for the next PlayStation processor. Realistically, a 2018 console would still be using TSMC's 16nm FinFET technology - as used in PS4 Pro and Project Scorpio. The larger the graphics component of the chip, the more powerful it will be, but this makes the chip larger, more diffi*** to produce and more expensive. PS4 Pro achieves 4.2 teraflops with a processor using a chip in the region of 310-320mm2. Microsoft's Scorpio chip is 360mm2 but uses innovative technology to increase clock-speeds to hit its six teraflops.

A PlayStation 5 processor can afford to be larger, but not that much larger than Scorpio's, if we're remaining on the 16nmFF node. Mark Cerny's notional eight teraflop GPU seems like the realistic limit for a console processor under these conditions. The issue here is that this would only represent a 4.2x improvement over the base PlayStation 4 and a 1.9x boost over PS4 Pro.

总而言之 如果索尼2018年推出ps5
那么ps5的性能是pro的1.9倍
是ps4的4.2倍
所以2018年推出ps5的意义不大 16nm已经到头
那么ps5会在7nm 也就是2019年左右推出

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基本上不到12t，就是真4k 60帧的话应该是不会出的，没什么意义

showzyl89

想想都不可能啊。。。19年公布，20年出差不多。

bbpoo

3年一出，2018年底PSX公布

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18年出有什么意义？怎么也得19年底20年初。

自古枪兵幸运E

我只关心PS5能作到1080P60帧吗

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19公布20出，风味最佳。

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自古枪兵幸运E 发表于 2017-5-13 19:39
我只关心PS5能作到1080P60帧吗

为啥这么问？   PS4 PRO 什么游戏不能达到 1080P 60帧 了？

亚里斯猫德

可以仿效天蝎，提前1年+公布，在这一年+中好好吹一吹

安息不二

这么单纯的把性能堆下去感觉很无聊啊