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发表于 2013-6-19 08:00 · 香港
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本帖最后由 killbills 于 2013-6-19 08:01 编辑
DFC 在2006年對Wii , ps3, xb360的研究預測
DFC Intelligence has always said that as the dominant market leader, SCE was largely in control of its own fate. Microsoft and Nintendo had to hope Sony fumbled or significantly changed its strategy so that they could get an opportunity to capture some of that PS2 audience. Now it is clear Sony is handing its competitors a golden opportunity.
1) the high price of the PlayStation 3 is going to slow overall industry growth, especially for software and 2) if Sony does not change its current strategy for the PS3 the system will probably end up in third place in installed base.
DFC forecasts that the Microsoft Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii will have a larger installed base than their respective predecessors. However, we think the company with the biggest opportunity is Nintendo. With a market leading price and a compelling mass market message the Wii has the opportunity to be the market share leader in all major regions.
The Xbox 360 also has an opportunity to be the overall market share leader, but we think the system will generally be stronger in North America than in Europe or Japan. In fact, even under the best case scenario for the Xbox 360 we predict the system will finish third in Japan while being the number one system worldwide.
On the other hand Nintendo has almost nowhere to go but up with the Wii. Since the 8-bit NES from the 1980s, Nintendo console hardware systems have sold less and less. Now is the time for Nintendo to turn that around. In the last generation, the casual mass market game audience by and large went with the PlayStation 2. The GameCube was stuck with the loyal Nintendo diehard base. Now with the Wii, Nintendo has the chance to keep its loyal base and expand into a much more mass market audience. By letting Sony and Microsoft split the hard-core teenage/twenty something video game marketplace, the Wii could end up number one in market share for the next generation.
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