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发表于 2007-6-17 09:05 · 广东
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下面是引用yuxiaogang于2007-06-17 02:15发表的:
NPD公布5月美国主机销量
WII：338,278
PS3：81,604
.......
VGC vs. NPD, Round 3 -- with Special Guest Referee Michael Pachter!
For the third straight month, the availability of weekly data for the American region from VGChartz prompts us to make comparisons to NPD's publically released monthly numbers.
In March, the first month VGChartz attempted to provide free weekly charts for the American region, the results were not good. Hardware numbers were off by over 50% when compared to NPD in some cases, and adjustments were necessary to the data in order to bring them in line within 10%. In April, the results were a little better, with most platform hardware numbers falling within 17% and VGChartz consistently over-estimating -- part of that error is intentional, with sales tracked from outside the US and Canada and a belief that NPD is overly conservative with their numbers.
The May results are not as nice, and NPD senior manager David Riley wasted no time in gloating about it. Most notably, VGChartz overestimated Xbox 360 sales by over 40% and DS sales by 20%; they also underestimated PSP sales by 31% and PS3 sales by 16%. See the full table below.
Platform NPD US NPD CA NPD Total VGChartz % Diff
DS 423150 35900 459050 549312 20%
Wii 338278 37300 375578 397313 6%
PSP 221120 15000 236120 163242 -31%
PS2 187765 18200 205965 226976 10%
X360 154932 12300 167232 236621 41%
PS3 81604 6500 88104 73436 -17%
GBA 80554 6100 86654 68836 -21%
Software numbers and a similar comparison are in another article.
On a side note, let's take a moment to compare the predictions of video game analyst Michael Pachter, to the NPD hardware numbers.
Platform NPD US Pachter US % Diff
DS 423150 475000 12%
Wii 338278 400000 18%
PSP 221120 175000 -21%
PS2 187765 250000 33%
X360 154932 225000 45%
PS3 81604 100000 23%
As you can see, Pachter's predictions were generally even farther off -- 26% on average -- than VGChartz' data (21% average error). Most notably, the errors for both VGChartz and Pachter were all in the same direction, except for the PS3. What does this mean, exactly? Well, as always, NPD is the premiere source for sales data -- if you can pony up the cash for full data, anyway -- and VGChartz still has some work to do to achieve the desired 10-15% accuracy levels on a consistent basis. It is comforting to know, though, that VGChartz still beats out professional analysts! |
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