业界预测XB360未来走势，06年XB360将取得暂时性胜利

彩虹泪珠

市场调研厂商Kagan Research今天发表了新的业界预测。报告指出06年，微软将在北美市场打破索尼的垄断优势，以54%的硬件市场份额占据第一。但PS3将在2008年最终为索尼重新夺回冠军宝座。

报告同时预测PS3北美发售时间将是06年下半年，之后索尼将慢慢赶上微软之前积累的优势。到08年北美次时代游戏机市场将在一千八百万台左右，索尼占据54%，微软占24%居次席，任天堂22%排行第三。

对于今年圣诞，报告预测的XB360销量为一百五十万台。到07年底，XB360的销量可能达到一千一百万台。

在报告的其他部分，Kagan Research认为，任天堂将凭借DS最终甩开PSP在便携机市场占据统治地位。

October 27, 2005

Kagan Forecasts Xbox 360 Sales Win In 2006
According to new forecasts from analyst firm Kagan Research, its forecasts are claiming that Microsoft will break Sony’s North American market share dominance in 2006, leading with 54% of hardware unit sales. But Sony’s PlayStation 3 will eventually lead in sales that will peak in 2008, according to the company.

Kagan's research presumes that Sony’s PlayStation 3 will hit the U.S. marketplace in the second half of 2006. Under these circumstances, the firm forecasts that the PS3 is likely to surpass Microsoft’s Xbox 360 in cumulative sales by 2008. Kagan forecasts 17.9 mil. consoles sold in the U.S. in 2008, with PS3 accounting for 54% of next-generation game hardware units purchased that year, the Xbox 360 for 24%, and Nintendo's Revolution for 22%.

Microsoft's Xbox 360 is expected to roll up sales of 1.6 mil. units in the U.S. by the end of 2005, forecasts Kagan’s Future of Video Games 2005 databook. By the end of 2007, Xbox 360 cumulative sales are projected to reach 11.1 mil. units. As for Nintendo's Revolution, Kagan predicts it will hit North America in late 2006, capturing 19% of the market by year-end.

“Console sales have declined for two years in a row, but in 2005, with the highly anticipated Xbox 360 slated to hit the market November 22, we expect to see unit sales start an upward climb with a 3% increase over 2004,” said Irina Mulvey, CFA, analyst at Kagan Research.

Other interesting estimates revealed by the report overview include suggestions that total video game console sales over all generations are expected to climb to $6.4 bil. in 2007, though projected to slip to $5.9 bil. in 2008. In addition, total video game industry revenue – hardware, software and accessories for all platforms – is forecast to peak at $16 bil. in 2007. Kagan also expects Nintendo to retain a dominant presence in the handheld market with the DS, although the company did not publically release estimates on the margin of this success.

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kissmyass

这种预测很屎~~~~

kickyourass

下面是引用kissmyass于2005-10-28 08:38发表的:
这种预测很屎~~~~

预测有用么？

myyin

任天堂的次世代，不看好，非常得不看好

北千里

Other interesting estimates revealed by the report overview include suggestions that total video game console sales over all generations are expected to climb to $6.4 bil. in 2007, though projected to slip to $5.9 bil. in 2008. In addition, total video game industry revenue – hardware, software and accessories for all platforms – is forecast to peak at $16 bil
预测一下跳那么多…………因为PS3么………………

真.黄金体验

2008......那么久远啊~

super-khh

呵呵呵，预言的作用向来都是来让人***的。。。。。。。。感觉360在日本会比XB还好，但绝达不到PS的高度。。。。。。。。

雨间

大家现在看看欧美的游戏销量排行榜，几乎已经占据了一半的游戏销量，而且XB360的手柄又如此的出色，而且又LIVE，如果是同平台的游戏肯定选择网络环境好的咯，我想360在欧美能占据60％以上的市场，日本只有有20％就已经是成功了

北千里

在日本的话XB系列成功几率不高~~主攻还是欧美市场，LIVE游戏越方便360越容易成功~

LEE2003

这个预测都是废话