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本帖最后由 苦艾酒 于 2013-7-29 11:36 编辑
实际上这是我毕业论文的一个章节，因为***希望我做一个Delphi Method的意见调查研究。我无能为力，只好求助于A9的玩家朋友了。如果您觉得这段文字太长，麻烦您直接拉下，最后有一个投票，用不了20秒，还请您帮帮忙，学生在这里谢谢您了。
The release of the iPhone in 2007 by Apple gave birth of an application market through the App Store. One year later, Android was launched with its own application store called Android Market in order to compete with iOS, the operative system used on Apple devices. In 2010, Apple made the market even wider with the release of the iPad, a tablet device. Today iOS and Android operation systems share the majority of the smart devices market(Guerrero 2012, 3). Both in App Store and Android Market , the most successful category is Games, which generates more applications, downloads and revenues.
在iPhone于2007年问世后，苹果通过App Store创造了一个崭新的“应用软件市场”。一年之后，操作系统Android发售了自己的平台Android Market以和苹果上的iOS系统抗衡。在2010年，在苹果发售了 iPad后，应用软件市场变得更加广大了。如今iOS和Android两分天下，占据了智能装置（smart devices）的绝大部分市场。而在 App Store和 Android Market 上，拥有最多软件数量，下载和收入，也就是最成功的软件类型皆为“Games”。
After iPhone's launch in 2007, its popularity increased at an unstoppable force and all other smartphones benefited from its success. In 2011, total annual global shipments of smartphones exceeded those of client PCs . In the first quarter of 2013, worldwide sales of smartphones exceeded those of feature phones . As shown in the following chart, even the huge success of NDS pales before iPhone .
从2007年开始，iPhone的人气就以无法阻挡的速度直线上升，而其他智能手机也受益于此。在2011年，智能手机第一次比个人用电脑卖的更多(450 million对410 million)，创造了新的历史。另外在2013第一季度中，智能手机也终于超过了自己的前辈功能手机。就如下图所示，即使是大收欢迎的nds也在iPhone的成功面前如同儿戏。
In 2012, the money spent mobile game market reached US$10 billion, eclipsing that of dedicated handheld game console market . The mobile game market is growing at an astonishing rate that beats all video console markets, and it has been forecasted to surpass US$11 billion by 2015 .
2012年里，手机游戏在全球的市场份额到达了100亿美元，超过了掌机游戏的80亿。其增长速度只有Online Game能媲美，主机游戏望尘莫及。预计在2015年，手机游戏的市场份额将超过110亿美元。
One of the advantage of mobile game market is its low entry barriers comparing to other video game market. As technique became more and more advanced in the video game market, the cost of developing games continue to rise, just like the cost of visual effect for Hollywood blockbuster. In the seventh generation, AAA title on the home console will cost at least US$ 10 million to develop , while complex app on the mobile's cost will not exceed US$ 0.25 million . Another fact is mobile games have its direct sale market, bypassing both retailers and network operators and it also reduces the development cost. Both benefits offer small size developers more chance of success on the mobile platform.
相比传统游戏，手机游戏最大的优点之一在于其低廉的进入壁垒(entry barriers). 如今AAA级的大作成本至少都在一千万美元以上，比如GTA四花了一亿，当年最终幻想7仅算制作成本都在四千五百万美元以上，在考虑通膨因素后，这笔钱大约相当于今天的七千六百万美元。而即使是最复杂的手机游戏一般都不会超过二十五万美元，一般的游戏甚至可以控制在五万到十万。另外手机游戏由于是直接通过网络平台发卖，也不需要考虑和零售商之间的利益关系，因此发售成本几乎等同于零。这些长处都对小型制作组非常有利，对他们而言，在手机市场上成功的概率更大，风险更小。
Consumer wise, the average price per game in the App Store is 0.80 dollar , while even handheld console game, which is cheaper than home console games, cost 40 dollars on average. Granted, the most dominant business model in mobile game market is freemium. It is a business model by which the game itself is provided free of charge in order to attract more consumers, and money is charged for advanced features, functionality, or virtual goods. Normally those who spend money for freemium games will end up spend equal amount of money of a full price handheld game if not more. But rather than paying the full price from the start, a freemium game gradually chips consumer's money away without them feel paying a significant price at a time. In this way, consumer is more willingly to engage with these types of games.
对于消费者来说，App Store里游戏的平均售价是0.8美元，而掌机游戏的售价则是40美元。当然如今手机游戏最流行的收费方式是"Freenium"，即游戏本身免费，开发商通过附加功能来收费***。可能对于花钱的玩家来说，最后他们在手机游戏上的投入会和掌机游戏持平或更多。但是由于这些钱是一点一点地花出去的，消费者不会觉得一下子要掏很多钱，更不需要在玩之前就付费。这样消费者会更青睐手机游戏的收费方式。
In 2011, it is estimated three-fourths of tablet owners play games on the device, while 57 percent of smartphone users play games . Needless to say, the majority of these gamers are casual gamers, yet their number exceeds handheld console gamers by a large margin and this margin will only keep going with more and more people purchase smartphone.
在2011年里，有3/4的平版电脑使用者会玩游戏，在智能手机上这个数字是57%。这些玩家中的绝大多是休闲玩家(casual gamers)，但是其总量也已经超过了掌机的购买者。即使说，哪怕所有购买掌机的玩家都是核心玩家（当然事实上即使是掌机玩家，大部分也是休闲玩家），其数量也低于智能装置上的玩家群，而双方的差距在未来只会被进一步扩大。
This ongoing “casualization” of video game market turned more consumers looked for games with low entry barriers, with limited investments required in terms of money and time necessary to learn the game. For the game developers, it means lower development cost and risk, also it makes the company easier to manage their employees into small develop team. As a result, traditional video game developers focus their capital and source for heavy users on home console, and switched the rest of their money from handheld console to mobiles. In other words, mobile games pick up steam at expense of handheld console games.
游戏市场的“休闲化(casualization)”，让更多的玩家希望玩到无需过多投资金钱和时间的小游戏。而对游戏厂商来说，这其实降低了游戏的开发成本和回本风险，也有利于他们对手下员工进行更优化的编组。结果，传统的游戏开发商将他们的大部分资金和资源都投入到了家用机大作的开发上，而他们原本在掌机游戏的投入开发则被分流到了手机游戏上。换句话说，手机游戏市场之得乃张机游戏市场之失（ mobile games pick up steam at expense of handheld console games.）。
The trend is not a good sign for Nintendo, or especially Sony, since Nintendo and Apple are nearly equal in terms of consumer spending on games at the present . Though it doesn't mean the end, the next few years will be crucial for the handheld console market. Will it become a niche market like arcade game market? Will it stay competitive against the onslaught of the mobile game market? Or perhaps as mobile games get more sophisticated, the distinction between the two markets will become blurry in the future?
毫无疑问，这对索尼和任天堂来说都不是好消息。特别是索尼的VITA，因为现在任天堂和苹果的掌机/手机游戏的玩家消费总量还基本持平。未来的几年对掌机市场将十分关键。
于是问题就来了，对您而言，您觉得：
1. 掌机将会逐渐沦为如同街机一样的边缘化市场
2. 掌机还是会在未来坚挺，与手机两分天下
3. 随着手机功能的不断强化，最终两者间的区别会逐渐模糊，你中有我，我中有你。
最后的最后，感谢您的宝贵一票。
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发表于 2013-7-29 13:31 · 美国
